decline | equity to invest | start equity | equity after decline | % of original equity invested |
2.5 | 2 | 100.0 | 98.0 | 2% |
7.5 | 10 | 97.9 | 88.1 | 10% |
12.5 | 17 | 87.6 | 72.7 | 15% |
20 | 28 | 71.4 | 51.4 | 20% |
35 | 42 | 47.2 | 27.4 | 20% |
50 | 100 | 21.1 | 0 | 21% |
Since 1928 there have been 294 pullbacks of at least 5%.
94 (>10%)
43 (>15%)
25 (>20%) bear market
So in a statistical sense once you hit the 5% threshold your chances of a 10%, 15%, and 20%+ drop are as follows:
10%: 32.0%
15%: 14.6%
20%+: 8.5%
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