Tuesday, April 10, 2012

how much equity to invest during a decline, if you want to be fully invested after a 50% sell off
decline equity to invest start equity equity after decline % of original equity invested
2.5 2 100.0 98.0 2%
7.5 10 97.9 88.1 10%
12.5 17 87.6 72.7 15%
20 28 71.4 51.4 20%
35 42 47.2 27.4 20%
50 100 21.1 0 21%

Since 1928 there have been 294 pullbacks of at least 5%.  
94  (>10%)
43  (>15%) 
25 (>20%) bear market

So in a statistical sense once you hit the 5% threshold your chances of a 10%, 15%, and 20%+ drop are as follows:

10%: 32.0%

15%:  14.6%

20%+: 8.5%

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