According to TPC expansion contraction model, no recession 2012, but risks increase in 2013 greatly.

• Deficit according to CBO estimate will decline from $1.08T to $585B = domestic private surplus will shrink 2% assuming current account remains at $400B (currently at 5%)
• Private sector household debt accumulation is at 2.9% yoy.  This is good, but consumer credit, and total loans at commercial banks need to improve
• Policy makers have extended bush taxcuts until to 1/2013, and enactment of mandatory spending cuts on 1/2013.  These could be changed which will increase deficit
• If everything stays the same 12Q3 will start showing economic contraction, leveling off at -1.5% in 2013.