Turkey Contagion

It's unlikely that Turkey's debt crisis will have a meaningful effect on global markets.  The IMF will likely step in and bail out the nation.  Other central banks will make sure there is plenty of liquidity to prevent contagion as well.  Most of the time that liquidity finds its way into stock markets.

Wage inflation spiked on the previous NFP.  Data from the recent NFP shows wages growing at 2.7% yoy.  The past 3 recession were preceded by annual wage growth of more than 4%.

U.S. Tariff Policy and potential Trade War

The Trade War that President Trump's Administration is implementing has put a lid on equity market performance since February.  However, as we approach midterm elections, it looks less likely that the current U.S. Administration will be able to follow through with their tariff policy by September's deadline. 

Given the investigations around Trump and likelihood of a negative impact from the Mueller investigation, it's likely there will be elevated volatility and risk in the market. 

However, if Republicans maintain control of both the House and Senate and nothing significant comes from the Mueller investigation, it is likely that a trade war will offset any earnings growth potential discounted by the market.

More than likely, a negative impact from the investigation leading to volatility will occur and the trade war rhetoric will die down.  This will likely cause 1.5 - 2 months of volatility eventually leading to a rebound in sentiment and new highs in the S&P to close out the year.