Wednesday, May 9, 2018

VXX Short Strategy

I made a spreadsheet where I plot daily VXX returns assuming a 25% core short position.  Then you push more shares into the core for every 20% drop in VXX.  The blue line is the return from initial principle.  The orange line is the maintenance equity for holding that short position.  From the model, it looks like if VXX were to rise about 180% from the avg price entry you would get a margin call assuming a 25% required maintenance margin.  




Tuesday, May 8, 2018

Stock Buyback Blackout Months.

January, April, July and October have lower repurchase rates because for the 1 month before an EPS report companies are not allowed to repurchase their stock.  This reduced demand can potentially exacerbate volatility in those stocks.

Wednesday, May 2, 2018

Adjusted Percent Return of BRK.B vs SPY

I read an article a few weeks ago stating that SPY has been outperforming BRK.B over the last 8 years.  Recently my friend asked me to check up on this so I looked into the data and it shows the opposite. 

BRK.B and SPY are both in the large cap space.  BRK.B is less diversified so it should have some outperformance, however it is also so large that it is also unlikely to consistently generate the return it has since the 1960s.

Here is a chart comparing the adjusted percentage return of BRK.B to SPY.  Since 2001, BRK.B has significantly outperformed SPY at a 330% gain compared to 190% gain.  Since 2010, however, the returns have been almost similar 194% vs 176% with BRK.B still outperforming.  Given that dividends would be taxed on the SPY re-investment, there is probably additional out-performance in owning BRK.B over SPY.