Ray Dalio Linked in post:
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/its-all-classic-main-questions-timing-what-next-downturn-ray-dalio/

In the “late-cycle” phase of the short-term debt/business cycle, when 
a) an economy’s demand is increasing at a rate that is faster than the capacity for it to produce is increasing and 
b) the capacity to produce is near its limits, prices of those items that are constrained (like workers and constrained capital goods) go up. 
At that time, profits also rise for those who own the capacities to produce those items that are in short supply. Then the acceleration of demand into capacity constraints and rise in prices and profits causes interest rates to rise and central banks to tighten monetary policy, which causes stock and other asset prices to fall because all assets are priced as the present value of their future cash flows and interest rates are the discount rate used to calculate present values. That is why it is not unusual to see strong economies accompanied by falling stock and other asset prices...

What we do know is that we are in the part of the cycle in which the central banks’ getting monetary policy right is difficult and that this time around the balancing act will be especially difficult (given all the stimulation into capacity constraints and given the long durations of assets and a number of other factors) so that the risks of a recession in the next 18-24 months are rising. While most market players are focusing on the strong 2018, we are focusing more on 2019 and 2020 (which is the next presidential election year). Frankly, it seems to be inappropriate oversight to not be talking about the chances of a recession and what that recession might look like prior to the next election.