Monday, July 9, 2012

One Good Trade - Mike Bellafonte

  1. Only trade setups you recognize, that are statistically in your favor, that have high payout when correct
  2. P/L doesn't matter, just make sure you follow your rules.  Profits flow from discipline.
  3. Review your trades constantly.  Video reviews are the best
  4. Only trade stocks in play - high volume, big intraday moves, low spread
  5. Get used to being wrong, 30 - 40% of the time you will be wrong.  Get out of trades when you're wrong, close to the price that you realize you are wrong
  6. Use visualization exercises to help your trading.  Ie:  imagine a trade hitting your exit price, and exiting immediately.  Then, imagine not exiting immediately and it going against you.  Recognize your emotions (ie: anger, frustration, denial) and how they can affect your mindset in future trades.
  7. Use a training simulator to go over trades, u can learn up to 10x faster.
  8. Trading is not investing, you have no clue where things will end up tomorrow, just over the next couple minutes.
  9. Returns of 100% - 500% are possible.
  10. Learn how to read the tape (level II), buying / selling much more obvious
  11. Open, mid-day, and Close have different strategies to profit from.
    1. Open  - use the tape
    2. midday low volume,
    3. Close go with the trend
  12. Set your max loss to 1/2 your average trading gain, try to be profitable 7/10 days
  13. Make if-then statement for all your trading setups
    1. If the 30 bid is tested, with significant volume on the bid, and holds, then...get long
    2. if the 30 holds, who is the buyer?
    3. if the 30 holds and slows, then sell if the buyer is not near or thick offer near
    4. if 30 holds and the bids step up, then consider another lot
    5. if 30 holds and a ton of volume is done on the bid, then do not sell until a reason to sell
    6. ...+ 30 more things

Temporary Help as UI indicator: as a supplement to BLS NFP figure

Tuesday, July 3, 2012

TPC
Sell side analysts are more bearish than ever.  There is a fiscal cliff in 2012 - 2013, Europe Defaults, China GDP slow down, India inflation, PMI contractions all around the world.  However, this is a hugely contratrian measure