On determining how to make a recession model using current(CEI) vs leading(LEI) indicators:.
1.Heading for the hills more than 5 months before recession is more likely counterproductive than productive

2. You need not isolate your decision points to LEI’s only 

a. LEI can be subject to false positives 

b. LEI only give you an extra 33% “edge” 

3. Couple or stage your actions with recession models using more accurate CEI’s to still capture 2/3 of the benefit