Friday, September 16, 2011

Ray Dalio interview
1. reality works in a certain way, can we describe how it works(ie: inflation is a certain amount, if it goes down x%, the price of the bond should go up by that amount.  there is a structure to all asset classes)
2.  what is the principle for dealing with reality (principle = getting outcome we want)
  • if you have 15+ good, uncorrelated revenue streams, you will risk to return will be 5x greater (80% less risk).  Goal in constructing a portfolio is getting these 15 uncorrelated streams
    • 60% correlated, 1000 revenue streams, risk only reduced by 20%!
  • in constructing your portfolio, 
    • you must figure out what is the risk neutral portfolio (mix of dollars / gold?)
    • stocks / bonds example
      • they can either be positively or negatively correlated, depending on whether you know what determines the pricing of that asset class
      • economic uncertainty and volatility => negatively correlated, inflation uncertainty and volatility => positively correlated.
      • Each behaves logically within its own structure
http://www.hedgefundletters.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/a-template-for-understanding.pdf

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