1. reality works in a certain way, can we describe how it works(ie: inflation is a certain amount, if it goes down x%, the price of the bond should go up by that amount. there is a structure to all asset classes)
2. what is the principle for dealing with reality (principle = getting outcome we want)
- if you have 15+ good, uncorrelated revenue streams, you will risk to return will be 5x greater (80% less risk). Goal in constructing a portfolio is getting these 15 uncorrelated streams
- 60% correlated, 1000 revenue streams, risk only reduced by 20%!
- in constructing your portfolio,
- you must figure out what is the risk neutral portfolio (mix of dollars / gold?)
- stocks / bonds example
- they can either be positively or negatively correlated, depending on whether you know what determines the pricing of that asset class
- economic uncertainty and volatility => negatively correlated, inflation uncertainty and volatility => positively correlated.
- Each behaves logically within its own structure
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