TPC

• GS - on ISM data
• High level of growth favors cyclical parts of the equity market.  slow rate of change signals a shift to become more defense at the sector level.
• ISM has remained above 50 for 20 straight months and above 60 for 4 months.  However, the index may have peaked at 61.4 in feb.  SPX and most sectors pause around teh ISM peak allowing time for investors to confirm a transition is underway and re-allocate portfolios into later cycle parts of the market.
• Around previous peaks, S&P has consolidated gains for about 3 months before resuming median positive returns of 13% as ISM fall from peak to 50.  [Variance is wide on this estimate]
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