TPC

• Pre-election year, first 7 - 8 months are positive, rest of the year is choppy
• corporate profit margins seem to bottom around 6.5% during a recession

ADash

• Good - ECRI new high (7.1%). SFSLI (.002). Philly Fed (43.4 multi decade high). Coordinated currency intervention (although TPC says this always fails).
  
• Bad - Core logic said home prices fell -5.7%. Building permits were down -8%MOM, and -20%YOY.
  
• Middle east turmoil has created a +/-$15/bbl price oil premium. However, depending on how events play out, it is more likely it is +$15.
• 45% bullish. Will be buying mid week if prices seem to stabilize.

TradersN

• Farrel Sentiment 51% (<>
• NAAIM 50% (<>
• HNNSI 20% (-45% = buy)

FT

• In the days after a natural disaster, the stock markets typically fall 6 - 8% in the days after the disaster and remained weak and volatile for about a month. But it resumed its pre-catastrophe level in between 23 and 78 days after the. A hundred days after disaster, the affected market was always up.
• Tmobile / ATT merger - Under the terms of the deal, AT&T will pay $25 billion in cash and the balance in stock. Deutsche Telekom will gain an 8-per cent stake in AT&T and a seat on the telecom giant's board.
  
  • Using 7.1 EBITDA multiplier and VZ EBITDA to PM of 26.5% implies earnings of 1.48B.
    
  • DCF using market discount of 9.5% = 15B valuation. If it grows at 20% for 3 years = 55B valuation. Avg = 35B.
    
  • So ATT might have paid 4B too much? Both stocks went up after the deal w/ ATT putting on 2.2B in MC, and Deutsch Telekom putting on 4.7B. Does this mean that 6.9B was 'unlocked'?
    
• Jim Turley - demographics of india and middle east (avg age of 27 - 28 in 2020) will be better than China / US (37.5) and Europe / Japan (47.5)