Tuesday, March 8, 2011

TPC
  • JPM - Correction Late march / early april, target of SP500 1250. Newmont Mining, Metals USA, Thompson Creek Metals, FCX, DHT Holdings
ADash
  • Good - ECRI hit another peak, Risk moved to .032 from -0.19, Employment showed solid growth(and better than he expected), initial claims improved (although hourly wage and work week weren't good)
  • Bad - Gas prices postd the 2nd largest 2 week increase in history to 33c/gallon. Middle East tension (reports of Iran beind uprising in various oil-producing states, but so far SaudiA seems stable)
  • Slightly bullish posture
  • Next week - energy prices, jobless claims, JOLTS job report (not heavily followed)
  • Look at M2 for Fed policy
AdvisorP - http://advisorperspectives.com/newsletters11/Ed_Hyman-The_Key_Threat_to_Economy_Recovery.php
  • Bernanke wants equity markets higher, if equity markets stumble there will be moRE QE, Obama is going to the political middle, improving real economic indicators, inflation unlikely w/o wage growth.
  • Recession if oil goes above $150. Gold prices are going up because of Argentina / China, commodities going up because countries are hoarding,.
  • Every $10 increase in oil affects GDP .3%
Bill Gross
  • America's negative net savings rate of 1-2%. "Basically the U.S. is not saving enough money to replace its own capital from the standpoint of depreciation and potential investment,"
  • is concerned the economy will stagger when the Fed pulls the plug on its QE2 program at the end of June.
  • If oil remains at current levels above $100 per barrel, Gross estimates it will sap $700 billion of consumer purchasing power; that could strip the economy of a half percentage point of GDP.

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