Tuesday, March 1, 2011

FT - bonds
  • World bonds average 7.7%/year above inflation from 1982 to 2008, the best since the deflationary 1930s. But this was an aberration, which has made bonds look safer than they really are.
  • History shows just how badly bonds can perform. at LSB, some researches pointed out that it took US treasuries 51 years from Dec 1940 to get their money back after inflation. At their worst, in 1981, bonds were down 67% in real terms
  • By picking the fifth of countries w/ the highest inflation the previous year, rebalancing each year, would have returned 4% above inflation over the past century. Countries w/ the lowest inflation returned just 2.3%. => this didn't work well from 1900 - 1924 (even excluding Germany's hyperinflation)

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