Monday, February 14, 2011

TPC -
  • Warren Buffet indicator US Stock Market vs GNP is at 106%, > 100% supposed to be overvalued, <>


  • Eurozone core CPI at 1.1%, CPI at 2.4%. With Unemployment at 10%, unlikely that CPI will move up.
  • China core CPI at 2.1% , overall at 4.9%


  • San Diego housing prices are definitely rolling over, w/ almost 5% dip from Dec - Jan


ADash -
  • The early expectation is for 2012 to have total net income passing the $1 Trillion mark to $1.0113 Trillion. That will also put the “EPS” for the S&P 500 over the $100 “per share” level for the first time at $106.79. That is up from $57.71 for 2009, $82.93 for 2010, and $95.20 for 2011. In an environment where the 10-year T-note is yielding 3.63%, a P/E of 15.8x based on 2010 and 13.7x based on 2011 earnings looks attractive. The P/E based on 2012 earnings is 12.2x.
  • Bank loan requirements (1/25/11) allowed for provisions where mark to market is not necessary and loans can be amortized, while making reasonable allowances for loan losses. This is small business friendly and therefore 'good'.
Bad
  • Interest rates are higher
  • Michigan Consumer sentiment missed.
Bespoke
  • Smart money indicator (last 1 hour of the day smart money buys while dumb money buys in the beginning of the day). If you look at YTD performance, open is up .04% while last hour is up .08%.














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